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Is the "De-Globalization" Trend Causing Permanent Supply Chain Inflation?
2025-11-22 - 03:26 pm
Defining the Trend: Explaining "de-globalization" or "fragmentation" in the context of increasing geopolitical tensions, specifically between major economic blocs like the US, China, and the EU.
The Cost of Resilience: Discussing the shift from purely cost-driven 'just-in-time' supply chains to resilience-driven 'just-in-case' models, which involves nearshoring, reshoring, and stockpiling—and the associated higher manufacturing costs.
Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policy: Analyzing how ongoing and proposed trade tariffs (like those related to Chinese exports and rare earth metals) directly influence import prices and create barriers to traditional, low-cost trade flows.
Investment and Infrastructure: Exploring the massive private and public investment required to build new, localized manufacturing capacity (e.g., semiconductor fabrication plants) and how this investment initially contributes to inflationary pressure.
Long-Term Economic Outlook: Debating whether the current inflationary pressures from supply chain restructuring are temporary adjustments or represent a permanent, structural shift to a world with higher base costs for goods.