General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan

Background:

1. Career military officer
2. Led 2021 coup
3. Now Sudan's de facto leader
4. Controls eastern Sudan and military
5. Based in Port Sudan

Backing:

1. Egypt (primary supporter)
2. Russia (through arms sales and Wagner/Africa Corps connections)
3. Residual international recognition as "official" government

Motivation:

1. Personal power
2. Military institution's dominance
3. Cannot accept subordination to former subordinate (Hemeti)
4. Preservation of northern/military elite's privileges

Future: If he wins or maintains control, Sudan becomes an Egyptian satellite state with continued authoritarianism, no democratic transition, and likely continued conflicts with peripheral regions.

Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo (Hemeti)

Background:

1. Rose from Darfur camel trader/militia leader
2. Created RSF from Janjaweed
3. Accumulated vast wealth through gold mines
4. Led forces accused of genocide in 2000s and now

Backing:

1. UAE (primary supporter providing weapons, drones, money)
2. Libyan General Haftar
3. Chad (allowing weapons transit)
4. Various mercenary networks

Motivation:

1. Personal power and wealth
2. Control of gold resources in Darfur
3. Transformation from warlord to head of state
4. Revenge against northern elites who looked down on him

Future: If he consolidates control of western Sudan, it becomes a de facto UAE protectorate, with gold extraction enriching UAE and Hemeti while local populations suffer continued ethnic cleansing.

The UAE Leadership

Key Figures:

1. Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ), Abu Dhabi Crown Prince and UAE President
2. Employing sophisticated use of mercenaries and proxies

Backing RSF Because:

1. Access to gold (Sudan has significant reserves)
2. Regional influence in Horn of Africa
3. Testing advanced weapons systems
4. Competition with Qatar and Turkey
5. Containing Islamist movements
6. Strategic location near Red Sea

Method:

1. Weapons shipments via Chad
2. Drones manufactured in UAE
3. Financial support through front companies
4. Diplomatic cover
5. Media silence

Consequences:

1. Enabling genocide
2. Violating UN arms embargoes
3. Destabilizing entire region
4. Facing virtually no international pushback

The UAE's actions in Sudan mirror its Yemen intervention: use of proxies, ethnic divisions exploited, humanitarian catastrophe ignored, resource extraction prioritized. The pattern is clear but unpunished.

The Egyptian Leadership

Key Figures:

1. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
2. Egyptian military establishment

Backing Military Because:

1. Fear of instability on southern border
2. Nile water security concerns
3. Preventing Muslim Brotherhood influence
4. Historical military-to-military ties
5. Containing UAE expansion

Method:

1. Military equipment and training
2. Intelligence sharing
3. Political support
4. Economic assistance
5. Diplomatic backing

Consequences:

1. Prolonging conflict
2. Preventing negotiated settlement
3. Enabling military's maximalist position
4. Contributing to humanitarian catastrophe

Egypt faces its own dilemma: a destabilized Sudan on its border is dangerous, but a UAE-dominated Sudan is also threatening. Its support for Burhan ensures the conflict continues.

The Personal Element

This isn't just geopolitics—it's personal:

1. Burhan and Hemeti's relationship deteriorated from allies to blood enemies
2. Both invested their personal legitimacy in victory
3. Years of fighting create blood debts that prevent compromise
4. Each has committed atrocities requiring victory to avoid accountability
5. Ego and personal power drive decisions as much as strategy

As one analyst observed: "It comes to a clinic kind of revenge... with a sense of brutality which is beyond expectation."

The tragedy is that millions suffer because two men and their backers cannot share power or accept compromise.