The Post-Post-Cold War Order

Sudan reveals that we've entered a new era of international relations:

The Old Order (1945-1990):

1. Superpower competition but clear rules
2. UN had some authority
3. Decolonization narrative of progress
4. International institutions mattered

The Unipolar Moment (1990-2008):

1. US hegemony
2. Liberal interventionism (sometimes)
3. Expansion of international law
4. Human rights discourse dominant

The Current Chaos (2008-Present):

1. Multiple regional powers pursuing interests
2. UN paralyzed
3. International law selectively applied
4. Might makes right returning
5. Resource competition intensifying
6. Climate change creating new pressures

Sudan is the future: frozen conflicts, proxy wars, ethnic cleansing, resource theft, media blackouts, international indifference. What's happening there could happen anywhere the international community lacks strategic interest.

The New Colonialism

Sudan demonstrates that colonialism never ended, it just changed forms:

Old Colonialism:

1. Direct political control
2. Explicit resource extraction
3. Open racism and "civilizing mission"
4. Colonial administrators

New Colonialism:

1. Control through proxies and debt
2. Resource extraction through chaos
3. Rhetoric of "African solutions" while interfering
4. Economic administrators (IMF, World Bank)
5. Military bases justified by "terrorism" or "instability"

The UAE's role in Sudan is nakedly colonial:

1. Arming militias to extract gold
2. No concern for Sudanese welfare
3. Using Sudan as testing ground for weapons
4. Exploiting ethnic divisions
5. Facing no consequences

As one commentator stated: "It's a new form of colonialism when you've got Arab nationalist forces being funded and armed by the United Arab Emirates attacking black African tribes."

The Failure of Multilateralism

Sudan is Exhibit A for why multilateral institutions are failing:

The UN:

1. Security Council paralyzed by great power vetoes
2. General Assembly resolutions ignored
3. Peacekeeping missions underfunded
4. Humanitarian appeals go unanswered
5. Officials make speeches while genocide continues

The African Union:

1. No resources or capacity
2. Member states pursuing contradictory policies
3. Cannot enforce decisions
4. Ignored by external powers
5. Reduced to issuing statements

The Arab League:

1. Divided between Egypt and UAE positions
2. Unable to mediate between Arab states
3. No influence over members' foreign policies

The ICC:

1. No enforcement mechanism
2. Selective prosecution
3. Bashir precedent shows futility
4. Ignored by major powers

These institutions were supposed to prevent tragedies like Sudan. Their failure is complete.

The Resource Curse in the 21st Century

Sudan has:

1. Significant gold deposits (especially in Darfur)
2. Oil reserves (mostly in border regions and South Sudan)
3. Agricultural potential (once called the "breadbasket of Africa")
4. Strategic location (Red Sea access, Nile water)
5. Rare earth minerals

These resources have brought nothing but suffering:

1. Gold funds the RSF and is looted by UAE
2. Oil revenues finance weapons purchases
3. Agricultural land is contested and destroyed
4. Strategic location makes Sudan a proxy battleground
5. Resources mean external powers prefer exploitable chaos over stable governance

The lesson: in the absence of strong institutions and rule of law, resources are a curse that ensures conflict.

Climate Change as Conflict Multiplier

Though underreported, climate change intensifies Sudan's conflict:

1. Desertification pushing pastoralists south into farming areas
2. Water scarcity increasing tension over Nile resources
3. Agricultural collapse from drought
4. Competition for shrinking resources
5. Climate refugees adding to conflict-driven displacement

The Misseriya's need for grazing land in Abyei region during dry season creates conflict with Dinka farmers. This pattern—climate-driven resource competition—will only intensify, and Sudan shows how devastating the combination of climate stress and weak governance can be.