Short-Term Trajectory (1-2 Years)

Continued Stalemate:

1. RSF consolidates control in the west and south
2. Military maintains control in the east and north
3. Sporadic fighting along boundary areas
4. Neither side able to achieve decisive victory
5. Continued atrocities against civilians
6. Worsening humanitarian catastrophe

Humanitarian Collapse:

1. Mass starvation as agricultural production remains impossible
2. Disease outbreaks from collapsed sanitation
3. Generational impact from lack of education and healthcare
4. Millions more refugees fleeing
5. Neighboring countries unable to cope with refugee flows
6. International aid remaining grossly inadequate

De Facto Partition:

1. RSF establishes parallel government in El Fasher
2. Two currencies, two administrations, two armed forces
3. International community continues to recognize only Burhan government
4. RSF-controlled areas become black hole for governance
5. Criminal networks flourish in ungoverned spaces
6. Terrorist groups potentially establishing safe havens

Medium-Term Trajectory (3-5 Years)

Further Fragmentation:

1. Darfur potentially declaring full independence under RSF
2. Other regions (Nuba Mountains, Blue Nile, Abyei) making autonomy or independence bids
3. Multiple armed groups emerging beyond the two main factions
4. Neighboring countries annexing border regions
5. Three, four, or five separate entities where Sudan once was

Regional Instability:

1. Refugee crisis destabilizing Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia
2. Arms proliferation throughout the region
3. Mercenary networks using Sudan as base for operations elsewhere
4. Gold smuggling networks funding terrorism and organized crime
5. South Sudan's economy collapsing without Port Sudan access
6. Horn of Africa becoming even more volatile

Generational Scarring:

1. Entire generation of children with no education
2. Millions of young men trained only in violence
3. Deep ethnic hatreds reinforced by atrocities
4. Economic skills lost as professionals flee or die
5. Infrastructure damage requiring decades to repair
6. Trust between communities destroyed

Long-Term Trajectory (5-10+ Years)

The Somalia Scenario: Multiple weak statelets unable to provide governance:

1. Warlord-controlled territories with shifting boundaries
2. International intervention becoming even more difficult
3. Permanent humanitarian crisis
4. Brain drain as anyone with means flees
5. Generational cycles of violence
6. Terrorist groups exploiting ungoverned spaces

The Libya Scenario: Competing governments backed by rival international coalitions:

1. Eastern government (military) backed by Egypt, Russia
2. Western government (RSF) backed by UAE, potentially Turkey
3. Permanent frozen conflict with periodic escalations
4. Oil and gold revenues funding armed groups rather than development
5. Neighboring countries drawn into proxy conflicts

The Yemen Scenario: Total state collapse with multiple overlapping conflicts:

1. Ethnic conflicts (Arab vs. African)
2. Religious conflicts (though less pronounced than Yemen)
3. Regional conflicts (multiple armed groups in different areas)
4. Humanitarian catastrophe requiring permanent international aid
5. No realistic path to reunification
6. Becomes a testing ground for regional powers' weapons and strategies

The Best-Case Scenario (Unlikely)

Negotiated Partition: If the international community accepts reality:

1. Formal recognition of two states
2. Negotiated borders with international guarantees
3. Demilitarized zones between territories
4. Shared resource agreements (Nile water, oil revenues)
5. Truth and reconciliation processes in both states
6. International peacekeeping along borders
7. Marshall Plan-type reconstruction aid

This would require:

1. Both sides accepting they cannot win militarily
2. International consensus on recognition
3. Massive aid commitments
4. Security guarantees from multiple powers
5. Years of negotiations
6. External pressure on UAE and Egypt to accept partition

Why This Won't Happen:

1. No international consensus exists
2. Sets precedent for territorial changes through violence
3. Rewards ethnic cleansing and genocide
4. Neither side ready to compromise
5. No trust for power-sharing or confederation
6. External backers prefer client states over compromise
7. African Union opposes border changes
8. Would require unprecedented international commitment