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What Needs to Happen (But Won't)

Immediate Steps

Humanitarian Access:

  1. Immediate ceasefire to allow aid delivery
  2. International humanitarian corridors
  3. Protection for aid workers
  4. Emergency food, medicine, and shelter
  5. Evacuation of trapped civilians from El Fasher and other besieged areas

Arms Embargo Enforcement:

  1. Actual consequences for UAE's weapons shipments
  2. Sanctions on countries violating embargoes
  3. Monitoring of Chad and Libya borders
  4. Interdiction of drone and ammunition supplies
  5. Financial sanctions on those profiting from conflict

International Pressure:

  1. African Union emergency summit
  2. UN Security Council action beyond statements
  3. Suspension of UAE from international bodies until it stops arming RSF
  4. Pressure on Egypt to stop supporting military's maximalist position
  5. Coordination between African, Arab, and Western powers

Long-term Solutions

African-Led Mediation: The African Union should convene an urgent meeting of heads of states and government to discuss resolution. Eminent African leaders should be empowered to mediate:

  1. Former presidents like Olusegun Obasanjo
  2. Jakaya Kikwete
  3. Joaquim Chissano
  4. Hassan al-Turabi (though controversial, he understands the dynamics)

As one analyst argued: "It is important for the African continent and the institutions of African Union to come forth and begin to do something about it. It is the duty of the eminent African heads of former heads of state to come into the arena."

Addressing Root Causes:

  1. Confronting the arabization agenda and ensuring equal rights for all ethnic groups
  2. Truth and reconciliation process for historical grievances
  3. Constitutional framework that protects minority rights
  4. Genuine federalism or confederation that respects regional autonomy
  5. Economic development plans that benefit all regions, not just the center

Justice and Accountability:

  1. ICC prosecutions for genocide and war crimes
  2. Truth commission to document atrocities
  3. Reparations for victims
  4. Disarmament and demobilization programs
  5. Security sector reform to prevent future military coups

Regional Stability Framework:

  1. Agreement among neighbors (Egypt, Chad, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Libya) not to interfere
  2. Regional economic cooperation to reduce incentives for resource theft
  3. Border security cooperation
  4. Refugee return and resettlement programs
  5. Integration into African Continental Free Trade Area

Why None of This Will Happen

The Realpolitik:

  1. No Strategic Value: Sudan lacks the strategic importance of Ukraine or Gaza for major powers
  2. Resource Competition: Too many countries benefit from accessing Sudan's gold, oil, and minerals during chaos
  3. Precedent Fears: Recognizing partition might encourage separatists globally
  4. Racism: African conflicts receive less international attention and resources
  5. Complexity: The ethnic, religious, regional, and personal dimensions make easy solutions impossible
  6. War Fatigue: The world is exhausted by multiple conflicts (Ukraine, Gaza, Yemen, Myanmar, etc.)

The Structural Barriers:

  1. African Union lacks resources and political will
  2. UN Security Council is paralyzed by competing great power interests
  3. ICC has no enforcement mechanism
  4. Western countries prioritize relationships with UAE and Egypt over Sudanese lives
  5. Media indifference ensures no public pressure for action
  6. NGOs cannot access the country to even document the full scope of suffering

The Economic Reality: As one commentator noted: "In international relations, when people engage in peace negotiations, they want to know after we have midwifed and brokered peace what is in it for us?"

Countries ask:

  1. What natural resources can we access?
  2. What military bases can we establish?
  3. What political influence will we gain?
  4. What economic opportunities exist?

Without clear answers that benefit powerful actors, there's no incentive to invest in peacemaking.




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