The Entrenched Interests

Multiple parties benefit from continued conflict:

The RSF:

1. Controls gold mining areas worth billions
2. Has established a de facto state
3. Hemeti has presidential ambitions
4. UAE backing provides unlimited resources
5. No incentive to compromise from a position of strength

The Sudanese Military:

1. Maintains legitimacy as the "official" government
2. Controls Port Sudan and Red Sea access
3. Receives Egyptian support
4. Burhan's personal power depends on continued conflict
5. Cannot accept subordination or power-sharing with RSF

Regional Powers:

1. UAE benefits from gold extraction and regional influence
2. Egypt needs a friendly government in Khartoum
3. Chad, Libya, and others benefit from weapon transit fees and mercenary recruitment
4. Arms dealers profiting from both sides

International Arms Industry:

1. Weapons flowing from multiple sources
2. No enforcement of arms embargoes
3. Drones, ammunition, vehicles continuously supplied
4. A lucrative market with no oversight

The Clinic Wars

As one analyst explained: "It comes to clinic war because this is all what is about between the two factions. They were working together. They were allied and then like this it went back to fighting."

The personal enmity between Burhan and Hemeti makes compromise nearly impossible:

1. Both see the conflict as existential
2. Neither can accept the other's leadership
3. Years of fighting have created blood debts
4. Their forces have committed atrocities that require victory to avoid accountability
5. Ego and personal power are central to the conflict

The Fragmentation Risk

The war threatens to fragment Sudan further:

Potential Breakaway Regions:

1. Darfur (already effectively independent under RSF)
2. Abyei (disputed between Sudan and South Sudan)
3. Blue Nile region
4. Nuba Mountains
5. Eastern regions

Each area has groups that have always wanted to either separate or be governed differently from Khartoum. The current chaos provides opportunities for these movements to advance their goals, potentially creating multiple failed states rather than two functional ones.

The Military Stalemate

Neither side can achieve decisive military victory:

1. The RSF lacks air power but controls vast territory
2. The military has air superiority but cannot dislodge RSF from urban areas
3. Both sides have external supply lines that cannot be easily cut
4. Urban warfare favors defenders
5. The country's size makes total conquest impossible
6. External backers prevent either side from collapsing

The argument from General Burhan that they are going to have a military victory is without merit - the situation on the ground tells a different story.