There are forces within Sudan who argue that the philosophy of the Sudanese Administration is to arabize Sudan. They say this started with Hassan Al Turabi and was manifested through the Janjaweed, and they think that both Burhan and Hemeti are actually purveyors of pan-Arabism and arabization of Sudan.

So in as much as they are fighting each other, from some quarters they are seen to be ideological twins. This ethnic dimension makes the conflict even more complex and dangerous, with implications far beyond a simple power struggle between military factions.

The Effective Partition of Sudan

Two Separate States

Sudan is now functionally split in two:

1. The RSF controls an essentially contiguous territory in the southwest (including almost all of Darfur and much of southern Sudan)
2. The army controls another contiguous territory in the southeast (including most of the north, east, and center)

The capital Khartoum, which the military wrestled back control of in March, has been described by the BBC as a "burnt-out shell." General Burhan has turned the coastal Red Sea city of Port Sudan into the military and government headquarters instead.

The RSF has previously said that they hope to form a rival government based out of El Fasher.

The International Dilemma

This leaves the international community with an uncomfortable dilemma: whether to recognize Sudan's effective partition or insist upon the existing international borders. Neither are good options.

Acknowledging Sudan's partition and formally recognizing the two new states risks:

1. Effectively rewarding Sudan's warlords
2. Exacerbating instability in the Horn of Africa by encouraging various other separatist movements
3. Setting a dangerous precedent

Stubbornly insisting on existing international borders:

1. Ignores facts on the ground
2. Makes it harder for international organizations to provide economic or humanitarian aid
3. Leaves millions trapped without assistance

This has always been one of the big arguments for recognizing Somaliland, another effectively independent but internationally unrecognized state in the region which struggles to access international aid despite being one of the poorest countries in the world.