Scenario 1: Frozen Conflict (Most Likely - 60% probability)

Characteristics:

1. Effective partition continues
2. Sporadic fighting along boundaries
3. Neither side gains decisive advantage
4. Humanitarian catastrophe becomes permanent
5. International community accepts status quo
6. Both sides recognized by different powers

Triggers:

1. Military stalemate continues
2. External backers maintain support at current levels
3. No major international intervention
4. Neither leader dies or is overthrown
5. Regional states prefer known devils to uncertainty

Outcomes:

1. Millions permanently displaced
2. Two weak pseudo-states
3. Continued atrocities at lower intensity
4. Generational poverty and trauma
5. Terrorism and criminal networks flourish
6. Region remains unstable

Scenario 2: RSF Victory (25% probability)

Characteristics:

1. RSF captures Port Sudan and eastern strongholds
2. Military collapses or flees to Egypt
3. Hemeti declares himself president
4. UAE gains dominant influence
5. International community faces recognition dilemma

Triggers:

1. UAE dramatically increases support
2. Military morale collapses
3. Egypt distracted by domestic crisis
4. Major battlefield defeat breaks military
5. Burhan killed or flees

Outcomes:

1. Formal partition or RSF-dominated unified Sudan
2. Continued ethnic cleansing in Darfur
3. Gold resources fully controlled by UAE
4. Regional states forced to accept new reality
5. Potential recognition by some African/Arab states
6. Increased instability as non-RSF areas resist

Scenario 3: Military Victory (10% probability)

Characteristics:

1. Military recaptures western regions
2. RSF defeated or reduced to insurgency
3. Burhan consolidates control
4. Egypt's influence dominant
5. Return to authoritarian unified state

Triggers:

1. Egypt/Russia provide game-changing weapons
2. UAE withdraws support from RSF
3. Internal RSF splits or Hemeti killed
4. Major battlefield reversal
5. International support swings to military

Outcomes:

1. Renewed repression in Darfur
2. Continued conflict with peripheral regions
3. Egyptian satellite state
4. No democratic transition
5. Cyclical violence continues
6. Mass refugee populations remain displaced

Scenario 4: Negotiated Settlement (4% probability)

Characteristics:

1. External pressure forces compromise
2. Power-sharing or confederation agreement
3. International peacekeeping deployed
4. Humanitarian access restored
5. Transitional justice mechanisms

Triggers:

1. Major external powers coordinate pressure
2. Both sides exhausted
3. Regional consensus emerges
4. Massive aid commitments offered
5. Leadership changes on one or both sides

Outcomes:

1. Fragile peace
2. Continued ethnic tensions
3. Slow reconstruction
4. Requires sustained international engagement
5. Could collapse back to conflict

Scenario 5: Total Collapse (1% probability)

Characteristics:

1. Multiple additional factions emerge
2. Further fragmentation beyond two sides
3. Complete state failure
4. Yemen/Somalia-style chaos
5. Humanitarian catastrophe escalates

Triggers:

1. Regional interventions by multiple neighbors
2. Darfur declares full independence
3. Other regions break away
4. Terrorist groups establish safe havens
5. Climate/famine triggers additional displacement

Outcomes:

1. Multiple weak statelets
2. Permanent humanitarian crisis
3. Regional destabilization
4. Terrorism exportation
5. Generational recovery timeline